Future Ethics and Longtermism

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Future Ethics and Longtermism is the "Study of the Deep Future"—the investigation of the "Philosophical Framework" (~2010s–Present) that "Argues" that "Positively Influencing" the "Lives" of "Billions" (or Trillions) of "Future Humans" is a "Primary Moral Priority" for "People Living Today." While "Traditional Ethics" (see Article 114) "Focuses" on the "Present," **Longtermism** "Focuses" on the "Vast Potential" of the "Eons to Come." From **Derek Parfit’s** "Non-Identity Problem" and **William MacAskill** to "Existential Risk" (X-Risk) and "Intergenerational Justice," this field explores the "Expansion of the Moral Circle." It is the science of "Legacy," explaining why "We" "Should" "Care" about someone living **10,000 Years** from now—and how "Our Actions" "Shape" the "Whole" of "Human History."

Remembering

• Longtermism — The "View" that "Improving" the "Long-term Future" is a "Key Moral Priority" of our time.
• Existential Risk (X-Risk) — (Nick Bostrom). A "Risk" that "Threatens" to "Permanently" "Destroy" "Human Potential" (e.g., 'Nuclear War,' 'Super-Pandemic,' 'Misaligned AI').
• Derek Parfit — (See Article 112). The "Father" of Future Ethics: author of 'Reasons and Persons' (1984), who "Changed" how we think about "Identity" and "Future People."
• The Non-Identity Problem — Parfit's "Puzzle": if we "Change" our "Policy" (e.g. 'Climate Action'), the "People" who are "Born" in the future will be **"Different"** people. Can we "Harm" someone who "Wouldn't have existed" otherwise?
• William MacAskill — The "Modern Face": author of 'What We Owe the Future' (2022), who "Argues" for "Effective Altruism" (see Article 618) on a "Longtermist" scale.
• Moral Circle Expansion — (See Article 661). The "Historical Process" of "Including" "More Entities" (Slaves, Women, Animals, and now 'Future People') into our "Moral Consideration."
• Greatest Potential — The "Idea" that if humanity "Survives" for **1 Million Years**, the "Trillions" of "Lives" yet to be born "Dwarf" the "Billions" alive today.
• Intergenerational Justice — (See Article 664). The "Legal and Moral Obligation" to "Not" "Pass on" a "Destroyed Planet" to "Future Generations."
• Great Stagnation — The "Risk" that "Human Progress" (Social/Scientific) "Stops" "Permanently," "Preventing" a "Better Future."
• S-Risk (Suffering Risk) — A "Risk" that "Leads" to "Vast Amounts" of "Future Suffering" (e.g. 'Eternal Totalitarianism').

Understanding

Future Ethics is understood through Probability and Scale.

1. The "Vastness" of Time (Scale): "We are at the "Beginning."

• If "Human History" is a **"Book,"** we are on the **"First Page."**
• (See Article 133). Most species "Live" for **1 Million Years.**
• We have "Only" been "Civilized" for **10,000 Years.**
• **Longtermism** "Argues" that if we "Fail" **Now**, we "Kill" **"Trillions"** of "Potential Lives."
• "The Future" is the **"Moral Majority."**

2. The "Silent" Sufferer (Temporal Neutrality): "Distance in Time" is like "Distance in Space."

• (See Article 114). If you see a "Child" "Drowning" in front of you, you "Help."
• If a child is "Drowning" **1,000 Miles away**, you "Still Care."
• **Future Ethics** "Argues" that a child "Sutffering" **1,000 Years from now** "Matters" **"Exactly the Same."**
• "When" someone lives is **"Irrelevant"** to their **"Value."**
• "Justice" is **"Time-Blind."**

3. The "Hinge" of History (Existential Risk): "Our Century" "Matters" "More."

• (See Article 133). We are the **"First Generation"** with the "Power" to "Destroy" "Everything" (Nuclear/AI).
• This makes our "Actions" **"Uniquely Important."**
• If we "Protect" the "Future" **Now**, it "Can" "Last" for **Millions of Years.**
• We are the **"Hinge"** on which "Human Destiny" "Turns."
• "Responsibility" is **"Temporal."**

The 'Non-Identity Problem' (1984)': Parfit’s "Logical Trap." If a "Young Girl" has a baby "Now" vs "Wait 5 years," the babies are **"Different"** people (different DNA). If she "Chooses Now" and the child has a "Hard Life," has she "Harmed" him? If she had "Waited," **HE** "Wouldn't Exist." It proved that "Traditional Ethics" "Fails" when "Dealing" with "The Future."

Applying

Modeling 'The Future Impact' (Calculating 'Moral Value' of X-Risk Reduction): <syntaxhighlight lang="python"> def calculate_x_risk_value(risk_reduction_pct, future_lives_trillions):

   """
   Shows why 'Saving the Future' is the 'Best' action.
   """
   # Lives Saved = (Risk Reduction) * (Total Potential Lives)
   lives_saved = (risk_reduction_pct / 100.0) * (future_lives_trillions * 1e12)
   
   if lives_saved > 1e15:
       return f"IMPACT: COSMIC. {int(lives_saved / 1e12)} Trillion lives 'Protected'. (This is the 'Moral Priority')."
   else:
       return f"IMPACT: LOCAL. {int(lives_saved)} lives 'Protected'."

1. Case: Reducing the risk of AI-war by 0.01% (assuming 1000 Trillion future lives)

print(calculate_x_risk_value(0.01, 1000)) </syntaxhighlight>

Longtermist Landmarks

The 'Global Seed Vault' (Svalbard) → A "Physical" "Longtermist Project": "Storing" "Seeds" (see Article 589) to "Protect" "Agriculture" for **10,000 Years.**

The 'Clock of the Long Now' → A "Clock" "Built" to "Tick" for **10,000 Years**, "Designed" to "Help" humans "Think" in "Deep Time."

AI Alignment → (See Article 13). The "Technical Challenge" of "Ensuring" that "Super-AI" (see Article 08) "Shares" "Human Values" to "Avoid" "Existential Catastrophe."

Effective Altruism → (See Article 618). The "Sister Movement" that "Aims" to "Use" "Data and Reason" to "Do the Most Good" (often by 'Focusing' on the 'Long-term Future').

Analyzing

Short-termism vs. Longtermism

Feature	Short-termism (The Voter)	Longtermism (The Architect)
Horizon	"Next Election / Quarterly Profit"	"1,000 to 1,000,000 Years"
Priority	"Current Human Suffering"	"Existential Risk / Human Potential"
Goal	"Economic Stability / Comfort"	"Permanent Survival / Flourishing"
View of Duty	"To the Living"	"To the Potential"
Analogy	'Fixing a Leak'	'Planting a Cathedral Forest'

The Concept of "Moral Over-demandingness": Analyzing "The Burden." Critics argue that if we "Truly Care" about **"Trillions"** of future people, we "Should" "Spend" **"Every Cent"** and **"Every Moment"** "Saving" them, "Ignoring" the "Suffering" of **"People Alive Today."** (See Article 114). Longtermists "Counter" that we "Only Need" to "Pivot" a "Small Part" of "Global GDP" to "Make a Massive Difference." "Balance" is **"Sustainability."**

Evaluating

Evaluating Future Ethics:

1. Uncertainty: How can we "Predict" what "People 1,000 Years" from now will "Actually Need"? (Maybe they 'Hate' our 'Cathedrals'?).
2. Democracy: Is "Longtermism" "Anti-Democratic"? (Since 'Future People' 'Cannot Vote' for their 'Interests').
3. Inequality: (See Article 560). Does "Focusing" on "Existential Risk" "Ignore" the "Injustice" "Facing" "Billions" of "People in Poverty" **Right Now**?
4. Impact: How did "Longtermism" "Influenced" the **"UN's Our Common Agenda"** (2021)?

Creating

Future Frontiers:

1. The 'Future' AI-Sim (The Oracle): (See Article 08). An AI that "Simulates" **1 Million Future Paths** to "Identify" "Hinges" (Decisions) we "Make Today" that "Affect" "History" the most.
2. VR 'Deep Time' Walkthrough: (See Article 604). A "Experience" where you "See" the "Rise and Fall" of "Civilization" over **100,000 Years** to "Build" **"Temporal Empathy."**
3. The 'Legacy' Blockchain Ledger: (See Article 533). A "Platform" where "People" "Deposit" "Knowledge and Resources" "Locked" for **1,000 Years**, "Enforced" by "Smart Contracts."
4. Global 'Existential' Safety-Net: (See Article 630). A "Planetary Agreement" to "Dedicate" **1% of Global GDP** to "Preventing" **X-Risks** "Forever."