Future Ethics and Longtermism - Revision history

Wordpad: BloomWiki: Future Ethics and Longtermism

2026-04-25T01:51:26Z

BloomWiki: Future Ethics and Longtermism

← Older revision		Revision as of 01:51, 25 April 2026
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			<div style="background-color: #4B0082; color: #FFFFFF; padding: 20px; border-radius: 8px; margin-bottom: 15px;">
	{{BloomIntro}}		{{BloomIntro}}
	Future Ethics and Longtermism is the "Study of the Deep Future"—the investigation of the "Philosophical Framework" (~2010s–Present) that "Argues" that "Positively Influencing" the "Lives" of "Billions" (or Trillions) of "Future Humans" is a "Primary Moral Priority" for "People Living Today." While "Traditional Ethics" (see Article 114) "Focuses" on the "Present," Longtermism "Focuses" on the "Vast Potential" of the "Eons to Come." From Derek Parfit’s "Non-Identity Problem" and William MacAskill to "Existential Risk" (X-Risk) and "Intergenerational Justice," this field explores the "Expansion of the Moral Circle." It is the science of "Legacy," explaining why "We" "Should" "Care" about someone living 10,000 Years from now—and how "Our Actions" "Shape" the "Whole" of "Human History."		Future Ethics and Longtermism is the "Study of the Deep Future"—the investigation of the "Philosophical Framework" (~2010s–Present) that "Argues" that "Positively Influencing" the "Lives" of "Billions" (or Trillions) of "Future Humans" is a "Primary Moral Priority" for "People Living Today." While "Traditional Ethics" (see Article 114) "Focuses" on the "Present," Longtermism "Focuses" on the "Vast Potential" of the "Eons to Come." From Derek Parfit’s "Non-Identity Problem" and William MacAskill to "Existential Risk" (X-Risk) and "Intergenerational Justice," this field explores the "Expansion of the Moral Circle." It is the science of "Legacy," explaining why "We" "Should" "Care" about someone living 10,000 Years from now—and how "Our Actions" "Shape" the "Whole" of "Human History."
			</div>

	== Remembering ==		__TOC__

			<div style="background-color: #000080; color: #FFFFFF; padding: 20px; border-radius: 8px; margin-bottom: 15px;">
			== <span style="color: #FFFFFF;">Remembering</span> ==
	* '''Longtermism''' — The "View" that "Improving" the "Long-term Future" is a "Key Moral Priority" of our time.		* '''Longtermism''' — The "View" that "Improving" the "Long-term Future" is a "Key Moral Priority" of our time.
	* '''Existential Risk''' (X-Risk) — (Nick Bostrom). A "Risk" that "Threatens" to "Permanently" "Destroy" "Human Potential" (e.g., 'Nuclear War,' 'Super-Pandemic,' 'Misaligned AI').		* '''Existential Risk''' (X-Risk) — (Nick Bostrom). A "Risk" that "Threatens" to "Permanently" "Destroy" "Human Potential" (e.g., 'Nuclear War,' 'Super-Pandemic,' 'Misaligned AI').
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	* '''Great Stagnation''' — The "Risk" that "Human Progress" (Social/Scientific) "Stops" "Permanently," "Preventing" a "Better Future."		* '''Great Stagnation''' — The "Risk" that "Human Progress" (Social/Scientific) "Stops" "Permanently," "Preventing" a "Better Future."
	* '''S-Risk''' (Suffering Risk) — A "Risk" that "Leads" to "Vast Amounts" of "Future Suffering" (e.g. 'Eternal Totalitarianism').		* '''S-Risk''' (Suffering Risk) — A "Risk" that "Leads" to "Vast Amounts" of "Future Suffering" (e.g. 'Eternal Totalitarianism').
			</div>

	== Understanding ==		<div style="background-color: #006400; color: #FFFFFF; padding: 20px; border-radius: 8px; margin-bottom: 15px;">
			== <span style="color: #FFFFFF;">Understanding</span> ==
	Future Ethics is understood through '''Probability''' and '''Scale'''.		Future Ethics is understood through '''Probability''' and '''Scale'''.

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	'''The 'Non-Identity Problem' (1984)'''': Parfit’s "Logical Trap." If a "Young Girl" has a baby "Now" vs "Wait 5 years," the babies are "Different" people (different DNA). If she "Chooses Now" and the child has a "Hard Life," has she "Harmed" him? If she had "Waited," HE "Wouldn't Exist." It proved that "Traditional Ethics" "Fails" when "Dealing" with "The Future."		'''The 'Non-Identity Problem' (1984)'''': Parfit’s "Logical Trap." If a "Young Girl" has a baby "Now" vs "Wait 5 years," the babies are "Different" people (different DNA). If she "Chooses Now" and the child has a "Hard Life," has she "Harmed" him? If she had "Waited," HE "Wouldn't Exist." It proved that "Traditional Ethics" "Fails" when "Dealing" with "The Future."
			</div>

	== Applying ==		<div style="background-color: #8B0000; color: #FFFFFF; padding: 20px; border-radius: 8px; margin-bottom: 15px;">
			== <span style="color: #FFFFFF;">Applying</span> ==
	'''Modeling 'The Future Impact' (Calculating 'Moral Value' of X-Risk Reduction):'''		'''Modeling 'The Future Impact' (Calculating 'Moral Value' of X-Risk Reduction):'''
	<syntaxhighlight lang="python">		<syntaxhighlight lang="python">
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	: '''AI Alignment''' → (See Article 13). The "Technical Challenge" of "Ensuring" that "Super-AI" (see Article 08) "Shares" "Human Values" to "Avoid" "Existential Catastrophe."		: '''AI Alignment''' → (See Article 13). The "Technical Challenge" of "Ensuring" that "Super-AI" (see Article 08) "Shares" "Human Values" to "Avoid" "Existential Catastrophe."
	: '''Effective Altruism''' → (See Article 618). The "Sister Movement" that "Aims" to "Use" "Data and Reason" to "Do the Most Good" (often by 'Focusing' on the 'Long-term Future').		: '''Effective Altruism''' → (See Article 618). The "Sister Movement" that "Aims" to "Use" "Data and Reason" to "Do the Most Good" (often by 'Focusing' on the 'Long-term Future').
			</div>

	== Analyzing ==		<div style="background-color: #8B4500; color: #FFFFFF; padding: 20px; border-radius: 8px; margin-bottom: 15px;">
			== <span style="color: #FFFFFF;">Analyzing</span> ==
	{\| class="wikitable"		{\| class="wikitable"
	\|+ Short-termism vs. Longtermism		\|+ Short-termism vs. Longtermism
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	'''The Concept of "Moral Over-demandingness"''': Analyzing "The Burden." Critics argue that if we "Truly Care" about "Trillions" of future people, we "Should" "Spend" "Every Cent" and "Every Moment" "Saving" them, "Ignoring" the "Suffering" of "People Alive Today." (See Article 114). Longtermists "Counter" that we "Only Need" to "Pivot" a "Small Part" of "Global GDP" to "Make a Massive Difference." "Balance" is "Sustainability."		'''The Concept of "Moral Over-demandingness"''': Analyzing "The Burden." Critics argue that if we "Truly Care" about "Trillions" of future people, we "Should" "Spend" "Every Cent" and "Every Moment" "Saving" them, "Ignoring" the "Suffering" of "People Alive Today." (See Article 114). Longtermists "Counter" that we "Only Need" to "Pivot" a "Small Part" of "Global GDP" to "Make a Massive Difference." "Balance" is "Sustainability."
			</div>

	== Evaluating ==		<div style="background-color: #483D8B; color: #FFFFFF; padding: 20px; border-radius: 8px; margin-bottom: 15px;">
			== <span style="color: #FFFFFF;">Evaluating</span> ==
	Evaluating Future Ethics:		Evaluating Future Ethics:
	# '''Uncertainty''': How can we "Predict" what "People 1,000 Years" from now will "Actually Need"? (Maybe they 'Hate' our 'Cathedrals'?).		# '''Uncertainty''': How can we "Predict" what "People 1,000 Years" from now will "Actually Need"? (Maybe they 'Hate' our 'Cathedrals'?).
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	# '''Inequality''': (See Article 560). Does "Focusing" on "Existential Risk" "Ignore" the "Injustice" "Facing" "Billions" of "People in Poverty" Right Now?		# '''Inequality''': (See Article 560). Does "Focusing" on "Existential Risk" "Ignore" the "Injustice" "Facing" "Billions" of "People in Poverty" Right Now?
	# '''Impact''': How did "Longtermism" "Influenced" the "UN's Our Common Agenda" (2021)?		# '''Impact''': How did "Longtermism" "Influenced" the "UN's Our Common Agenda" (2021)?
			</div>

	== Creating ==		<div style="background-color: #2F4F4F; color: #FFFFFF; padding: 20px; border-radius: 8px; margin-bottom: 15px;">
			== <span style="color: #FFFFFF;">Creating</span> ==
	Future Frontiers:		Future Frontiers:
	# '''The 'Future' AI-Sim''' (The Oracle): (See Article 08). An AI that "Simulates" 1 Million Future Paths to "Identify" "Hinges" (Decisions) we "Make Today" that "Affect" "History" the most.		# '''The 'Future' AI-Sim''' (The Oracle): (See Article 08). An AI that "Simulates" 1 Million Future Paths to "Identify" "Hinges" (Decisions) we "Make Today" that "Affect" "History" the most.
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	[[Category:Effective Altruism]]		[[Category:Effective Altruism]]
	[[Category:Longtermism]]		[[Category:Longtermism]]
			</div>

Wordpad: BloomWiki: Future Ethics and Longtermism

2026-04-23T17:29:43Z

BloomWiki: Future Ethics and Longtermism

New page

{{BloomIntro}}
Future Ethics and Longtermism is the "Study of the Deep Future"—the investigation of the "Philosophical Framework" (~2010s–Present) that "Argues" that "Positively Influencing" the "Lives" of "Billions" (or Trillions) of "Future Humans" is a "Primary Moral Priority" for "People Living Today." While "Traditional Ethics" (see Article 114) "Focuses" on the "Present," **Longtermism** "Focuses" on the "Vast Potential" of the "Eons to Come." From **Derek Parfit’s** "Non-Identity Problem" and **William MacAskill** to "Existential Risk" (X-Risk) and "Intergenerational Justice," this field explores the "Expansion of the Moral Circle." It is the science of "Legacy," explaining why "We" "Should" "Care" about someone living **10,000 Years** from now—and how "Our Actions" "Shape" the "Whole" of "Human History."

== Remembering ==
* '''Longtermism''' — The "View" that "Improving" the "Long-term Future" is a "Key Moral Priority" of our time.
* '''Existential Risk''' (X-Risk) — (Nick Bostrom). A "Risk" that "Threatens" to "Permanently" "Destroy" "Human Potential" (e.g., 'Nuclear War,' 'Super-Pandemic,' 'Misaligned AI').
* '''Derek Parfit''' — (See Article 112). The "Father" of Future Ethics: author of 'Reasons and Persons' (1984), who "Changed" how we think about "Identity" and "Future People."
* '''The Non-Identity Problem''' — Parfit's "Puzzle": if we "Change" our "Policy" (e.g. 'Climate Action'), the "People" who are "Born" in the future will be **"Different"** people. Can we "Harm" someone who "Wouldn't have existed" otherwise?
* '''William MacAskill''' — The "Modern Face": author of 'What We Owe the Future' (2022), who "Argues" for "Effective Altruism" (see Article 618) on a "Longtermist" scale.
* '''Moral Circle Expansion''' — (See Article 661). The "Historical Process" of "Including" "More Entities" (Slaves, Women, Animals, and now 'Future People') into our "Moral Consideration."
* '''Greatest Potential''' — The "Idea" that if humanity "Survives" for **1 Million Years**, the "Trillions" of "Lives" yet to be born "Dwarf" the "Billions" alive today.
* '''Intergenerational Justice''' — (See Article 664). The "Legal and Moral Obligation" to "Not" "Pass on" a "Destroyed Planet" to "Future Generations."
* '''Great Stagnation''' — The "Risk" that "Human Progress" (Social/Scientific) "Stops" "Permanently," "Preventing" a "Better Future."
* '''S-Risk''' (Suffering Risk) — A "Risk" that "Leads" to "Vast Amounts" of "Future Suffering" (e.g. 'Eternal Totalitarianism').

== Understanding ==
Future Ethics is understood through '''Probability''' and '''Scale'''.

'''1. The "Vastness" of Time (Scale)''':
"We are at the "Beginning."
* If "Human History" is a **"Book,"** we are on the **"First Page."**
* (See Article 133). Most species "Live" for **1 Million Years.**
* We have "Only" been "Civilized" for **10,000 Years.**
* **Longtermism** "Argues" that if we "Fail" **Now**, we "Kill" **"Trillions"** of "Potential Lives."
* "The Future" is the **"Moral Majority."**

'''2. The "Silent" Sufferer (Temporal Neutrality)''':
"Distance in Time" is like "Distance in Space."
* (See Article 114). If you see a "Child" "Drowning" in front of you, you "Help."
* If a child is "Drowning" **1,000 Miles away**, you "Still Care."
* **Future Ethics** "Argues" that a child "Sutffering" **1,000 Years from now** "Matters" **"Exactly the Same."**
* "When" someone lives is **"Irrelevant"** to their **"Value."**
* "Justice" is **"Time-Blind."**

'''3. The "Hinge" of History (Existential Risk)''':
"Our Century" "Matters" "More."
* (See Article 133). We are the **"First Generation"** with the "Power" to "Destroy" "Everything" (Nuclear/AI).
* This makes our "Actions" **"Uniquely Important."**
* If we "Protect" the "Future" **Now**, it "Can" "Last" for **Millions of Years.**
* We are the **"Hinge"** on which "Human Destiny" "Turns."
* "Responsibility" is **"Temporal."**

'''The 'Non-Identity Problem' (1984)'''': Parfit’s "Logical Trap." If a "Young Girl" has a baby "Now" vs "Wait 5 years," the babies are **"Different"** people (different DNA). If she "Chooses Now" and the child has a "Hard Life," has she "Harmed" him? If she had "Waited," **HE** "Wouldn't Exist." It proved that "Traditional Ethics" "Fails" when "Dealing" with "The Future."

== Applying ==
'''Modeling 'The Future Impact' (Calculating 'Moral Value' of X-Risk Reduction):'''
<syntaxhighlight lang="python">
def calculate_x_risk_value(risk_reduction_pct, future_lives_trillions):
"""
Shows why 'Saving the Future' is the 'Best' action.
"""
# Lives Saved = (Risk Reduction) * (Total Potential Lives)
lives_saved = (risk_reduction_pct / 100.0) * (future_lives_trillions * 1e12)

if lives_saved > 1e15:
return f"IMPACT: COSMIC. {int(lives_saved / 1e12)} Trillion lives 'Protected'. (This is the 'Moral Priority')."
else:
return f"IMPACT: LOCAL. {int(lives_saved)} lives 'Protected'."

# Case: Reducing the risk of AI-war by 0.01% (assuming 1000 Trillion future lives)
print(calculate_x_risk_value(0.01, 1000))
</syntaxhighlight>

; Longtermist Landmarks
: '''The 'Global Seed Vault' (Svalbard)''' → A "Physical" "Longtermist Project": "Storing" "Seeds" (see Article 589) to "Protect" "Agriculture" for **10,000 Years.**
: '''The 'Clock of the Long Now' ''' → A "Clock" "Built" to "Tick" for **10,000 Years**, "Designed" to "Help" humans "Think" in "Deep Time."
: '''AI Alignment''' → (See Article 13). The "Technical Challenge" of "Ensuring" that "Super-AI" (see Article 08) "Shares" "Human Values" to "Avoid" "Existential Catastrophe."
: '''Effective Altruism''' → (See Article 618). The "Sister Movement" that "Aims" to "Use" "Data and Reason" to "Do the Most Good" (often by 'Focusing' on the 'Long-term Future').

== Analyzing ==
{| class="wikitable"
|+ Short-termism vs. Longtermism
! Feature !! Short-termism (The Voter) !! Longtermism (The Architect)
|-
| Horizon || "Next Election / Quarterly Profit" || "1,000 to 1,000,000 Years"
|-
| Priority || "Current Human Suffering" || "Existential Risk / Human Potential"
|-
| Goal || "Economic Stability / Comfort" || "Permanent Survival / Flourishing"
|-
| View of Duty || "To the Living" || "To the Potential"
|-
| Analogy || 'Fixing a Leak' || 'Planting a Cathedral Forest'
|}

'''The Concept of "Moral Over-demandingness"''': Analyzing "The Burden." Critics argue that if we "Truly Care" about **"Trillions"** of future people, we "Should" "Spend" **"Every Cent"** and **"Every Moment"** "Saving" them, "Ignoring" the "Suffering" of **"People Alive Today."** (See Article 114). Longtermists "Counter" that we "Only Need" to "Pivot" a "Small Part" of "Global GDP" to "Make a Massive Difference." "Balance" is **"Sustainability."**

== Evaluating ==
Evaluating Future Ethics:
# '''Uncertainty''': How can we "Predict" what "People 1,000 Years" from now will "Actually Need"? (Maybe they 'Hate' our 'Cathedrals'?).
# '''Democracy''': Is "Longtermism" "Anti-Democratic"? (Since 'Future People' 'Cannot Vote' for their 'Interests').
# '''Inequality''': (See Article 560). Does "Focusing" on "Existential Risk" "Ignore" the "Injustice" "Facing" "Billions" of "People in Poverty" **Right Now**?
# '''Impact''': How did "Longtermism" "Influenced" the **"UN's Our Common Agenda"** (2021)?

== Creating ==
Future Frontiers:
# '''The 'Future' AI-Sim''' (The Oracle): (See Article 08). An AI that "Simulates" **1 Million Future Paths** to "Identify" "Hinges" (Decisions) we "Make Today" that "Affect" "History" the most.
# '''VR 'Deep Time' Walkthrough''': (See Article 604). A "Experience" where you "See" the "Rise and Fall" of "Civilization" over **100,000 Years** to "Build" **"Temporal Empathy."**
# '''The 'Legacy' Blockchain Ledger''': (See Article 533). A "Platform" where "People" "Deposit" "Knowledge and Resources" "Locked" for **1,000 Years**, "Enforced" by "Smart Contracts."
# '''Global 'Existential' Safety-Net''': (See Article 630). A "Planetary Agreement" to "Dedicate" **1% of Global GDP** to "Preventing" **X-Risks** "Forever."

[[Category:Arts]]
[[Category:Science]]
[[Category:Philosophy]]
[[Category:Ethics]]
[[Category:History]]
[[Category:Future Studies]]
[[Category:Cosmology]]
[[Category:Sociology]]
[[Category:Effective Altruism]]
[[Category:Longtermism]]