Editing Future Ethics and Longtermism

<div style="background-color: #4B0082; color: #FFFFFF; padding: 20px; border-radius: 8px; margin-bottom: 15px;">
{{BloomIntro}}
Future Ethics and Longtermism is the "Study of the Deep Future"—the investigation of the "Philosophical Framework" (~2010s–Present) that "Argues" that "Positively Influencing" the "Lives" of "Billions" (or Trillions) of "Future Humans" is a "Primary Moral Priority" for "People Living Today." While "Traditional Ethics" (see Article 114) "Focuses" on the "Present," **Longtermism** "Focuses" on the "Vast Potential" of the "Eons to Come." From **Derek Parfit’s** "Non-Identity Problem" and **William MacAskill** to "Existential Risk" (X-Risk) and "Intergenerational Justice," this field explores the "Expansion of the Moral Circle." It is the science of "Legacy," explaining why "We" "Should" "Care" about someone living **10,000 Years** from now—and how "Our Actions" "Shape" the "Whole" of "Human History."
</div>

__TOC__

<div style="background-color: #000080; color: #FFFFFF; padding: 20px; border-radius: 8px; margin-bottom: 15px;">
== <span style="color: #FFFFFF;">Remembering</span> ==
* '''Longtermism''' — The "View" that "Improving" the "Long-term Future" is a "Key Moral Priority" of our time.
* '''Existential Risk''' (X-Risk) — (Nick Bostrom). A "Risk" that "Threatens" to "Permanently" "Destroy" "Human Potential" (e.g., 'Nuclear War,' 'Super-Pandemic,' 'Misaligned AI').
* '''Derek Parfit''' — (See Article 112). The "Father" of Future Ethics: author of 'Reasons and Persons' (1984), who "Changed" how we think about "Identity" and "Future People."
* '''The Non-Identity Problem''' — Parfit's "Puzzle": if we "Change" our "Policy" (e.g. 'Climate Action'), the "People" who are "Born" in the future will be **"Different"** people. Can we "Harm" someone who "Wouldn't have existed" otherwise?
* '''William MacAskill''' — The "Modern Face": author of 'What We Owe the Future' (2022), who "Argues" for "Effective Altruism" (see Article 618) on a "Longtermist" scale.
* '''Moral Circle Expansion''' — (See Article 661). The "Historical Process" of "Including" "More Entities" (Slaves, Women, Animals, and now 'Future People') into our "Moral Consideration."
* '''Greatest Potential''' — The "Idea" that if humanity "Survives" for **1 Million Years**, the "Trillions" of "Lives" yet to be born "Dwarf" the "Billions" alive today.
* '''Intergenerational Justice''' — (See Article 664). The "Legal and Moral Obligation" to "Not" "Pass on" a "Destroyed Planet" to "Future Generations."
* '''Great Stagnation''' — The "Risk" that "Human Progress" (Social/Scientific) "Stops" "Permanently," "Preventing" a "Better Future."
* '''S-Risk''' (Suffering Risk) — A "Risk" that "Leads" to "Vast Amounts" of "Future Suffering" (e.g. 'Eternal Totalitarianism').
</div>

<div style="background-color: #006400; color: #FFFFFF; padding: 20px; border-radius: 8px; margin-bottom: 15px;">
== <span style="color: #FFFFFF;">Understanding</span> ==
Future Ethics is understood through '''Probability''' and '''Scale'''.

'''1. The "Vastness" of Time (Scale)''':
"We are at the "Beginning."
* If "Human History" is a **"Book,"** we are on the **"First Page."**
* (See Article 133). Most species "Live" for **1 Million Years.**
* We have "Only" been "Civilized" for **10,000 Years.**
* **Longtermism** "Argues" that if we "Fail" **Now**, we "Kill" **"Trillions"** of "Potential Lives."
* "The Future" is the **"Moral Majority."**

'''2. The "Silent" Sufferer (Temporal Neutrality)''':
"Distance in Time" is like "Distance in Space."
* (See Article 114). If you see a "Child" "Drowning" in front of you, you "Help."
* If a child is "Drowning" **1,000 Miles away**, you "Still Care."
* **Future Ethics** "Argues" that a child "Sutffering" **1,000 Years from now** "Matters" **"Exactly the Same."**
* "When" someone lives is **"Irrelevant"** to their **"Value."**
* "Justice" is **"Time-Blind."**

'''3. The "Hinge" of History (Existential Risk)''':
"Our Century" "Matters" "More."
* (See Article 133). We are the **"First Generation"** with the "Power" to "Destroy" "Everything" (Nuclear/AI).
* This makes our "Actions" **"Uniquely Important."**
* If we "Protect" the "Future" **Now**, it "Can" "Last" for **Millions of Years.**
* We are the **"Hinge"** on which "Human Destiny" "Turns."
* "Responsibility" is **"Temporal."**

'''The 'Non-Identity Problem' (1984)'''': Parfit’s "Logical Trap." If a "Young Girl" has a baby "Now" vs "Wait 5 years," the babies are **"Different"** people (different DNA). If she "Chooses Now" and the child has a "Hard Life," has she "Harmed" him? If she had "Waited," **HE** "Wouldn't Exist." It proved that "Traditional Ethics" "Fails" when "Dealing" with "The Future."
</div>

<div style="background-color: #8B0000; color: #FFFFFF; padding: 20px; border-radius: 8px; margin-bottom: 15px;">
== <span style="color: #FFFFFF;">Applying</span> ==
'''Modeling 'The Future Impact' (Calculating 'Moral Value' of X-Risk Reduction):'''
<syntaxhighlight lang="python">
def calculate_x_risk_value(risk_reduction_pct, future_lives_trillions):
    """
    Shows why 'Saving the Future' is the 'Best' action.
    """
    # Lives Saved = (Risk Reduction) * (Total Potential Lives)
    lives_saved = (risk_reduction_pct / 100.0) * (future_lives_trillions * 1e12)
    
    if lives_saved > 1e15:
        return f"IMPACT: COSMIC. {int(lives_saved / 1e12)} Trillion lives 'Protected'. (This is the 'Moral Priority')."
    else:
        return f"IMPACT: LOCAL. {int(lives_saved)} lives 'Protected'."

# Case: Reducing the risk of AI-war by 0.01% (assuming 1000 Trillion future lives)
print(calculate_x_risk_value(0.01, 1000))
</syntaxhighlight>

; Longtermist Landmarks
: '''The 'Global Seed Vault' (Svalbard)''' → A "Physical" "Longtermist Project": "Storing" "Seeds" (see Article 589) to "Protect" "Agriculture" for **10,000 Years.**
: '''The 'Clock of the Long Now' ''' → A "Clock" "Built" to "Tick" for **10,000 Years**, "Designed" to "Help" humans "Think" in "Deep Time."
: '''AI Alignment''' → (See Article 13). The "Technical Challenge" of "Ensuring" that "Super-AI" (see Article 08) "Shares" "Human Values" to "Avoid" "Existential Catastrophe."
: '''Effective Altruism''' → (See Article 618). The "Sister Movement" that "Aims" to "Use" "Data and Reason" to "Do the Most Good" (often by 'Focusing' on the 'Long-term Future').
</div>

<div style="background-color: #8B4500; color: #FFFFFF; padding: 20px; border-radius: 8px; margin-bottom: 15px;">
== <span style="color: #FFFFFF;">Analyzing</span> ==
{| class="wikitable"
|+ Short-termism vs. Longtermism
! Feature !! Short-termism (The Voter) !! Longtermism (The Architect)
|-
| Horizon || "Next Election / Quarterly Profit" || "1,000 to 1,000,000 Years"
|-
| Priority || "Current Human Suffering" || "Existential Risk / Human Potential"
|-
| Goal || "Economic Stability / Comfort" || "Permanent Survival / Flourishing"
|-
| View of Duty || "To the Living" || "To the Potential"
|-
| Analogy || 'Fixing a Leak' || 'Planting a Cathedral Forest'
|}

'''The Concept of "Moral Over-demandingness"''': Analyzing "The Burden." Critics argue that if we "Truly Care" about **"Trillions"** of future people, we "Should" "Spend" **"Every Cent"** and **"Every Moment"** "Saving" them, "Ignoring" the "Suffering" of **"People Alive Today."** (See Article 114). Longtermists "Counter" that we "Only Need" to "Pivot" a "Small Part" of "Global GDP" to "Make a Massive Difference." "Balance" is **"Sustainability."**
</div>

<div style="background-color: #483D8B; color: #FFFFFF; padding: 20px; border-radius: 8px; margin-bottom: 15px;">
== <span style="color: #FFFFFF;">Evaluating</span> ==
Evaluating Future Ethics:
# '''Uncertainty''': How can we "Predict" what "People 1,000 Years" from now will "Actually Need"? (Maybe they 'Hate' our 'Cathedrals'?).
# '''Democracy''': Is "Longtermism" "Anti-Democratic"? (Since 'Future People' 'Cannot Vote' for their 'Interests').
# '''Inequality''': (See Article 560). Does "Focusing" on "Existential Risk" "Ignore" the "Injustice" "Facing" "Billions" of "People in Poverty" **Right Now**?
# '''Impact''': How did "Longtermism" "Influenced" the **"UN's Our Common Agenda"** (2021)?
</div>

<div style="background-color: #2F4F4F; color: #FFFFFF; padding: 20px; border-radius: 8px; margin-bottom: 15px;">
== <span style="color: #FFFFFF;">Creating</span> ==
Future Frontiers:
# '''The 'Future' AI-Sim''' (The Oracle): (See Article 08). An AI that "Simulates" **1 Million Future Paths** to "Identify" "Hinges" (Decisions) we "Make Today" that "Affect" "History" the most.
# '''VR 'Deep Time' Walkthrough''': (See Article 604). A "Experience" where you "See" the "Rise and Fall" of "Civilization" over **100,000 Years** to "Build" **"Temporal Empathy."**
# '''The 'Legacy' Blockchain Ledger''': (See Article 533). A "Platform" where "People" "Deposit" "Knowledge and Resources" "Locked" for **1,000 Years**, "Enforced" by "Smart Contracts."
# '''Global 'Existential' Safety-Net''': (See Article 630). A "Planetary Agreement" to "Dedicate" **1% of Global GDP** to "Preventing" **X-Risks** "Forever."

[[Category:Arts]]
[[Category:Science]]
[[Category:Philosophy]]
[[Category:Ethics]]
[[Category:History]]
[[Category:Future Studies]]
[[Category:Cosmology]]
[[Category:Sociology]]
[[Category:Effective Altruism]]
[[Category:Longtermism]]
</div>