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Heuristics and Biases
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== <span style="color: #FFFFFF;">Understanding</span> == Heuristics and biases are understood through '''Speed''' and '''Mismatch'''. '''1. The "Efficient" Brain (System 1)''': Why do we have "Biases" at all? * (See Article 616). **System 1** is "Always On." * It must "Make Decisions" in "Milliseconds" to "Keep us Alive." * **Heuristics** are "Good Enough" for **95% of Life.** * If you see "Movement" in the "Grass," you don't "Calculate Probability"βyou **"Run."** * "Bias" is the "Price" of **"Speed."** '''2. The "Modern" Mismatch (Evolution)''': Why do we fear "The Wrong Things"? * Our "Brain" evolved in the **"Savanna"** (see Article 571). * In the Savanna, **"Availability"** (What you saw recently) was a "Great Way" to "Learn about Danger." * In the **"Modern World"**, "The News" (see Article 542) "Floods" our brain with "Rare Disasters." * Our "Savanna Brain" thinks these "Rare Events" are "Everywhere." * We have **"Primitive Software"** running on **"High-Tech Hardware."** '''3. The "Anchor" of the Mind (Comparison)''': The "Relativity" of Value. * If a "Shirt" costs **$100**, you think it's "Expensive." * If you see a **$500** shirt first, and then the **$100** shirt is "On Sale," you think it's a **"Bargain."** * The "Brain" is **"Terrible"** at "Absolute Measurement" but **"Great"** at "Comparison." * "Marketers" use this "Anchor" to "Control" your "Perception of Value." '''The 'Linda Problem' ''': A classic experiment. "Linda is 31, outspoken, and concerned with social justice." People were asked if it's more likely that: (A) Linda is a Bank Teller, or (B) Linda is a Bank Teller **and** active in the Feminist Movement. Most chose (B), even though (A) **must** be more likely (since B is a subset of A). It proved that "Narrative" (Representativeness) "Trumps" "Math" in the human mind. </div> <div style="background-color: #8B0000; color: #FFFFFF; padding: 20px; border-radius: 8px; margin-bottom: 15px;">
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