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Causal Inference in AI
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== <span style="color: #FFFFFF;">Remembering</span> == * '''Causation''' β A relationship where one event (the cause) brings about another event (the effect). Distinct from correlation. * '''Correlation''' β A statistical association between two variables that does not imply causation ("correlation is not causation"). * '''Confounding variable''' β A hidden variable that influences both the apparent cause and effect, creating a spurious association. * '''Intervention''' β Actively changing the value of a variable (rather than just observing it), denoted do(X=x) in do-calculus. * '''Observational data''' β Data collected without intervening; correlations in observational data may not reflect causal relationships. * '''Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT)''' β The gold standard for establishing causation: randomly assign units to treatment or control, then measure outcomes. * '''Counterfactual''' β A hypothetical: "What would have happened if X had been different?" e.g., "Would this patient have survived if they had received the drug?" * '''Potential outcomes framework''' β A formalization of causal inference using Y(1) (outcome if treated) and Y(0) (outcome if not treated) for each unit. * '''Average Treatment Effect (ATE)''' β The average causal effect of a treatment across a population: E[Y(1) - Y(0)]. * '''DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph)''' β A graphical model where nodes are variables and directed edges represent causal relationships; no cycles. * '''Backdoor criterion''' β A graphical criterion for identifying which variables to condition on to block spurious correlations (confounding paths) in a causal DAG. * '''Do-calculus''' β A set of rules (developed by Judea Pearl) for computing the effect of interventions from observational data and a causal DAG. * '''Instrumental variable''' β A variable that affects the treatment but has no direct effect on the outcome except through the treatment; used to estimate causal effects when confounding is present. * '''Causal discovery''' β Algorithms for inferring causal structure (the DAG) from observational data. * '''Selection bias''' β Bias arising when the sample used for analysis is not representative of the population of interest. </div> <div style="background-color: #006400; color: #FFFFFF; padding: 20px; border-radius: 8px; margin-bottom: 15px;">
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